australia
– the australian economy continues to outperform market expectations. on the 7th june,
q1 gdp beat market expectations rising 0.9% pushing the year on year rate to 3.1%. strong consumer spending and rising business investment were the main drivers. this and the tight labour market support the idea of an august rba rate rise. in the near term, this could prop up the aud, but something has been weighing on aud in the past month and we believe it is the enormous current account deficit, which means any rally is likely to be limited in scope.
澳大利亚
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澳大利亚经济连续超过市场预期。
六月七日
第一季度超过市场预期0.9%年比上升3.1%,消费性开支和商业投资的增长是主要驱动因素。这些以及供不应求的劳动力市场将会使八月澳大利亚储备银行(rba )利率提高。短期来看，这将支撑澳元，但过去一个月里巨大的经常帐户赤字影响了澳元。
new zealand
– the important news in the june rbnz statement on monetary policy was the quite explicit recognition that economic growth is indeed weakening, and weakening by more than the central bank expected. this is apparent in home construction, imports, business investment, and business confidence. also, the first quarter balance of payments will confirm that new zealand’s external deficit is right up there with iceland, spain, australia, and the united states. contrary to australia, the cash rate is likely to remain unchanged until the fourth quarter of the year when one can not rule out a rate cut. so although the deficits in new zealand and australia are both perilous if the rba raise rates later this year and the rbnz cut, then we would expect the aud to out-perform the nzd.
